The Governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting (OSPB) released its quarterly economic forecast today.
“Colorado’s economy is strong and will continue to grow in the months ahead. Our administration is saving people money on everyday items, sending $750 to individuals and $1500 to joint filers to help provide immediate economic relief, as well as providing property tax relief. I am committed to investing in education, saving people money on health care, and continuing to ensure Colorado is affordable for all, and one of the best places to start or run a business. This new projection includes the welcome news that Coloradans will get even more back in tax refunds when they file next year in April,” said Governor Jared Polis.
Nationally, pandemic-induced inflation continues to persist as an economic concern and the country is rebounding from the first half of the year.
As a state, Colorado has continued to outpace other states showing a strong economic performance, with a 3.4% unemployment rate, and 2nd in the country for job participation rate. This year, Governor Polis announced the 100 ways the Polis Administration is saving Coloradans money, including saving Coloradans $700 million through property tax relief for small businesses, farmers, and ranchers, cutting the cost of a state parks pass by more than half through the Keep Colorado Wild Pass starting in 2023, lowered vehicle registration costs, providing free transit and bus fares across Colorado this and next summer.
The OSPB economic forecast projected General Fund revenue in FY 2021-22 to have grown 23.7 percent, to $17.7 billion, as income and excise revenues grow at 20 percent or more. The projection for FY2022-23 is $130.8 million lower than the June forecast, as reduced withholdings and estimated payment income revenue expectations more than offset increased sales tax revenue. This results in revenues falling by 7.2 percent in FY2022-23, before growing again by 1.7 percent in FY2023-24. The downward revision in FY2023-24 of $551.1 million is due to reduced expectations in future individual withholdings and estimated payments as consumer and labor demand begin to fall. In FY2024-25, revenues are expected to grow more quickly, at 5.6 percent.
In FY2021-22, cash fund revenue subject to TABOR increased by 20.0 percent to $2.69 billion. In FY2022-23, revenue is expected to fall 3.6 percent, followed by a 0.5 percent increase in FY 2023-24 and 4.0 percent growth in FY2024-25.
View the forecast, slides, and supplemental materials.